Taliban as Reconciliation Partners

This article has been published with some changes at
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-351677-Taliban-as-partners

“We actually view the Taliban as being an important partner in a peaceful Afghan-led reconciliation process. We are not actively targeting the Taliban,” Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said on 5th November. This is a very significant statement given by the US department of Defense.

The Americans have been trying for peace talks with the Taliban for quite some time now from its start in Qatar, then China and most recently in Pakistan. Interestingly, the American President George Bush had said earlier in September 2004 that  “And as a result of the United States military, Taliban no longer is in existence. And the people of Afghanistan are now free.” And in December 2004: “In Afghanistan, America and our allies, with a historically small force and a brilliant strategy, defeated the Taliban in just a few short weeks.” After more than 14 years of celebrated victory and elimination of the Taliban, Americans seem to be back to square one! The Americans changed their position regarding Taliban so drastically that one can only view this as a complete failure of American control in the region.  

The statement from the pentagon becomes very much out of the ordinary when it is connected with the very recent battle of Kunduz which led to the downfall of the city on 28th September and then re-taken by Afghan forces with the help of Americans till 15th October. One security official briefed on the situation in Kunduz estimated that the Taliban force in the city numbered 500 against the estimated government forces of 7,000 troops in the area. “The problem wasn’t lack of security forces,” Zalmai Farooqi, a district governor who had retreated to the airport said, “but there was no good leadership to command these men.” This somewhat seems to be a repeat telecast of the episode of Mosul in Iraq. As mentioned by the Americans earlier, since they are not actively targeting the Taliban, it was the first time since 2001 that they had taken control of a major city in Afghanistan. But why are Americans doing this? If we analyze this situation critically, we can see that the fall of Kunduz in this climate holds great value for the American plan to stabilize Afghanistan.

Initially, American plan to stabilize Afghanistan had been to secure a government without Taliban as any stakeholders in the region and permanent presence of American troops to have a strong grip over Eurasia region. But when it failed, and they could not finish off the resistance against them, the plan changed and included Taliban as a small stakeholder along with American installed regime in Afghanistan and American military presence. For this the Americans allowed the Taliban to make an official office in Qatar, took them out of the list of terrorist organization, released several high profile prisoners, involved Pakistan to get support. But the Taliban under the leadership of Mullah Umar were adamant that Americans leave Afghanistan and the regime of Hamid karzai be completely removed and Taliban be given full Afghan Emirate as was before the occupation. This was naturally too much for the Americans to swallow as it would mean a defeat of exceptional bounds in the international arena and waste of billions of dollars and destroying a country for no reason.

Recently, the revised American plan for Afghanistan has seen some light. The change in regime in Kabul with Ashraf ghani and change in leadership of the Taliban and the end of American combat mission in Afghanistan are serious factors supporting the revised plan. Ashraf Ghani is much more open for discussions with Taliban as compared to his predecessor Hamid Karzai. The Taliban new leader Mullah Akhter Mansoor is open for dialogue with more flexibility than Mullah Umar even though several Taliban leaders are still challenging his legitimacy. The Americans had to leave because their official combat mission has ended on 28th December, 2014 and therefore had to pull out the present force of 9,800 US troops till the end of 2015.

This situation seems to be matured for a Taliban-afghan govt-US negotiations. Additional hindrances being faced by the three stakeholders have been somewhat eased out with the battle of Kunduz. For instance: The incident of Kunduz consolidated the leadership of Mullah Akhter Mansoor. It must have also additionally convinced many voices in the Afghan regime of Ashraf Ghani for additional compensations for the Taliban. Because, the Kunduz incident is yet another harsh example that If anything the war torn country has seen in these years, is the surge in militancy by the Taliban resistance. Finally, this incident provides strong justification for the continued American presence in this region. American President Mr. Obama announced just after the kunduz incident that he would keep the forces till 2017 as because they do not want Afghanistan to become safe heaven for militants once again.

Moreover, there is another important stakeholder i.e. Pakistan. The dilemma for American and Afghan Govt is that they cannot enter negotiation without Pakistan. Even though Pakistan is not directly a party in the negotiation process but it has considerable influence over the Taliban through the tribal belt and its previous involvement during the soviet invasion. And it has been very fortunate for the Americans and Kabul regime that Pakistan is actively pushing the Afghan Taliban for peace talks. Not only this, Pakistan has also provided increasing level of support by launching several military operations in its tribal region against Haqqani Network and the likes. This is done to punish the Taliban who are against peace talks and to pressurize the remaining. Pakistan has done all this even though this has caused serious repercussions at home.

Even though, things seem to be moving positively for the Americans, the key player in all this is Mullah Akhter Mansoor. If he consolidates his control over Taliban resistance and is ready to accept power sharing with Ashraf Ghani and ready to accept the permanent presence of some American troops and bases, the Americans will be happier than ever.

This may still be very tough because mainstream Taliban narrative is that of their first leader Mullah Umar. Afghan journalist Raza Wazir rightly points out that “The key issue the Taliban is facing regarding talks is maintaining the unity of its rank and file. For years, the ground fighters have waged war under the banner of jihad, which is why it is now difficult for them to talk with the ‘puppet government.” For this, Mullah Akhter will have to get support of Pakistan to control the stubborn Taliban and make more attempts to control his grip over the Taliban movement and make a fundamental shift in their policy of 14 years. This is a tough endeavour. Either he does this with the help of Pakistanis and Americans and the Afghan government or He sticks to the Mullah Umar doctrine and frustrate the American plans even further.